Global Career Threats
There is growing evidence that global factors are
approaching crucial tipping points that may cause a recession or more severe decline in
our current global economic system within the next 5 years.
If this happens it may make current high
consumption lifestyles impossible for many people. It is highly likely
that many of us will be forced to change our lifestyles and our
careers. Some occupations may decline dramatically as the world changes and demand for those services dry up.
There are various scenarios for radical decline put forward by
different groups however the most common predicted causes are global climate change, resource
limitations such as the “peak oil” scenario, the
U.S.
financial situation or a combination of these factors.
Any attempt to predict the future is difficult and
controversial. Most
career programs will not even raise this subject. The assumption is
always that the economy and society will continue more or less as it
has been. No career consultant wants to be seen as someone
running around crying “the sky is falling.” On the
other hand there is credible evidence that major tipping points WILL be
reached. The difficult part is predicting when and what the result will
be. Major disruptive changes might occur next year or in 10 years time.
Ultimately the only solution is for each of us to
seek out credible, expert information sources and make up our own minds.
Peak oil may
have the greatest potential to disrupt our conventional career plans in
the next 5 years. Peak oil is the idea that global demand for oil may
dramatically outpace global oil production as global production peaks
or plateaus for the first time in 150 years. When this will happen and
how quickly we will be able to switch to alternative technologies as
the price of oil rises is hotly
debated by industry experts.
Some voices in the peak oil debate are probably
too alarmist. Here in Australia we have LNG and coal reserves which will act as a cushion to some extent as oil prices rise.
However
some prudent risk management for your life’s game plan may
include some thought on this matter. If you wish to consider including
this in your game plan some useful websites to begin with are www.peakoil.net and
www.odac-info.org
or just Google “peak oil.”
If you read a lot about peak oil you may find it
disorienting. Give yourself some time to digest it and reach a balanced
perspective which is right for you. One website which may help if you
are finding it difficult adjusting to the possibilities of the peak oil
scenario is www.peakoilblues.com
. The section on “Life Stages” is good.
Career strategies that flow from the peak oil
scenario could include avoiding careers in industries highly dependent
on cheap oil such as hospitality and tourism or having back-up options
such as an auto electrician who develops an interest in electric cars.
Most career strategies will revolve around meeting
local needs in an economy which can no longer afford to transport food,
materials, products, and people as much as in the past. One exception
to this increased focus on the local economy will be some internet based businesses as it
takes little energy to move information around the globe.
Most career counsellors do not consider risk management strategies for peak oil and economic
downturns. For career counselling that can include these risks see our Career Counselling page.
